Tonghua Dongbao (600867): Insulin glargine approved for development and enters a new stage

Tonghua Dongbao (600867): Insulin glargine approved for development and enters a new stage
The announcement company announced that it has recently received the “Drug Registration Approval” of insulin glargine injection approved and issued by the State Drug Administration. Opinions Insulin glargine was approved, asparagus income was declared for production, and the three-generation alternative layout was gradually 苏州桑拿网 becoming more complete.The company announced on October 10, 17 that insulin glargine had been declared for production. Recently, insulin glargine was approved. At present, insulin aspart has been declared for production, and insulin aspart 50 has entered the subsequent stage.The company’s three-generation insulin layout is more complete, opening up new growth space. Globally, according to the Tonghua Dongbao announcement, Sanofi insulin glargine was 49 worldwide in 2018.US $ 9.5 billion, Novo Nordisk Aspartame, Aspartame 30R / 50R, Detemir Global Replacement are 29.72, 15.02, 17.US $ 7.3 billion, Eli Lilly’s insulin global ranking is 29.$ 9.7 billion.According to PDB data, the domestic third-generation insulin market reached USD 10.6 billion in 2016, of which insulin glargine was about 42.5 ‰, insulin lispro is about 20 ‰, and detemir is about 4.900 million.We estimate that the growth rate of the insulin industry in the next 10 years is close to 15%, which is highly prosperous.Tonghua Dongbao’s third-generation insulin includes 12 varieties including insulin glargine, insulin aspart, insulin detemir, and insulin lispro with complete pipelines.We expect insulin aspart to be approved next year, and it has advantages in terms of sales channels.According to our estimates, the number of diabetic patients in China reached 1 in 2018.For 1.4 billion people, if the third-generation insulin has a penetration rate of 20% and the per capita annual cost is 2,500 yuan, the market space for the third-generation insulin will exceed 50 billion yuan. The platinum industry superimposes domestic substitution and waits for the conversion of performance.According to the International Diabetes Federation, there were 4 global diabetic patients in 2018.2.5 billion people, China accounts for 1.1.4 billion people, “reserve army” pre-diabetic patients1.500 million people.According to estimates from pharmaceutical companies, the global diabetes market in 2016 was $ 41.7 billion, with insulin accounting for about 50%.In the later stages of diabetes, some patients will develop “islet failure.” Insulin is the ultimate treatment. According to the Chinese Journal of Diabetes, the average duration of treatment for diabetic patients in China in 2013 was (4 ± 4) years, and in Europe and America 4-6 yearsIn the past 10 years, the incremental start of treatment in the United States has gradually prolonged, making it difficult to shake.According to PDB statistics, the domestic revenue market size in 2016 reached US $ 16.8 billion, an increase of 13%.We estimate that the domestic replacement rate has been increasing, and the replacement rate has been increased from 2014 to 15th.6% increased to 22 in 2016.2%.Tonghua Dongbao, as the leader of the domestic insulin industry, enjoys industry growth and domestic substitution and waits for performance to transform. Profit forecast and investment advice.EPS are expected to be 0 in 19-21.48, 0.58, 0.69 yuan, we give the company 40-45 times PE in 2019, a reasonable value range of 19 in 6 months.02-21.40 yuan, given “preliminary market” rating. risk warning.The second-generation competition is fierce, the third-generation insulin progress exceeds expectations, the bidding policy is tight, the risk of price declines, and the risk of uncertainty caused by pharmaceutical policies.

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