China Pacific Insurance (601601): NBV turned into a group EV growth rate of 17.

5% better than expected

China Pacific Insurance (601601): NBV turned into a group EV growth rate of 17.

5% better than expected

Key points of investment: The company released the 2018 annual report: the accumulated premium income was 3218.

9.5 billion, an annual increase of 14.

3%; net profit attributable to mother is 180.

1.9 billion, an annual increase of 22.

9%; EPS1.

99 yuan.

Proposed dividend of RMB 1.

00 yuan (including tax).

Ping An’s perspective: Long-term premium growth has been stable, and the Group’s EV growth rate exceeded expectations: 2018’s premium income was 3218.

9.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +14.

3%, new single premium income 2024.

1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of +15.

3%, of which Q4 single 71 new orders.

1.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 164%.

It is expected that due to the better-than-expected investment income status, the difference in investment income will still make a positive contribution to the embedded value, and the group’s embedded value will increase by 17.

5% exceeded market expectations and reached 3,361.

4.1 billion.

Life insurance new order business improved quarter by quarter and business structure continued to optimize: Life insurance premium income was 2024.

1.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of +15.

3%, the number of agents at the end of 18 was 84.

20,000, compared with 83 in 18H.

90,000 people have stabilized and picked up, and the average monthly healthy manpower / outstanding manpower is 31.


90,000 people, +25 year-on-year.

8% / 14.

6%, but the average monthly average number of agents per year is slightly larger than in 2017.

Life insurance business NBV achieved 1.

Positive growth of 5% reached 271.

2 ppm, NBV margin reaches 43.

7%, an increase of 4 per year.

3 units, the value rate and value growth are worthy of recognition.

In the first year of long-term protection new business, annualized premiums reached 304.

RMB 990,000, a year-on-year increase of +7.

7%, the proportion increased by 7.

Four averages reached 49.

1%. Non-vehicles maintained a high growth rate, and the comprehensive cost rate continued to improve: the company’s long-term property insurance business gradually realized premium income of 1178.

08 million yuan, +12.

6%; premium income from auto insurance business was 879.

7.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of +7.

5% (18Q3YoY + 8.

0%); premium income from non-auto insurance business was 298.

3.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.

8% (18Q3YoY + 30.

8%), increased by 3.

Five averages, up to 26.

2%, corporate property insurance turned losses into profits.

Although the growth rate of the auto insurance business decreased slightly compared with the first three quarters, the non-auto insurance business continued to maintain a high growth rate, driving the property insurance premium income to steadily increase, and the comprehensive cost ratio decreased by 0 compared with the same period 南京夜网论坛 of the previous year.

The four averages are 98.

4%, to continue the industry.

Asset allocation remained stable, and investment yield maintained a high level: the company’s total investment portfolio injection in 20184.

6%, net investment income return 4.

9%, maintaining a relatively good level.

The overall asset allocation remained stable. Due to the sluggish equity market, fund / stock investment decreased by 0 compared to 18Q3.


7 up to 2.

7% and 4.

1%, cash and equivalents increase by 1.

1 promotion increased to 3.

At 7%, investment in fixed income rose by 1 compared to the end of 2017.

Three averages, accounting for 83.


Investment advice: The Group’s internal value-added growth exceeded expectations, the value of new business turned positive, the life insurance business structure 北京夜生活网 continued to optimize, and the comprehensive cost ratio of property insurance steadily decreased. At the same time, the company’s investment side remained relatively stable. According to the company’s actual operating conditions, EPS 2019-2021 was adjusted.The predictions are 2 respectively.

78 yuan, 3.

24 yuan, 3.

77 yuan (the original forecast EPS for 2019 and 2020 were 2 respectively.

38 yuan, 2.

84 yuan), corresponding P / EV is 0.

76 times, 0.

65 times, 0.

55 times, maintain “Recommended” rating on the company.

Risk Tips 1) Continued downward interest rate and capital market shock risks: If the continued downward interest rate will have an impact on new fixed income asset allocation returns, meanwhile, capital market shocks will bring uncertainty to equity investments.

2) The growth rate of premiums and value of opening red in 19 years is lower than expected risk: The current market is still concerned about the improvement of the data on the resistance of listed insurance companies in the first quarter.

3) The net profit improvement of the property insurance business is less than expected. The profit of the company’s property insurance business is negatively affected by the intensified market competition and rising expense ratios. If this trend cannot be improved later, it will gradually affect the property insurance sector.

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